Some say the rush to redistrict California’s House of Representatives could help counter a wave of Republican redistricting initiatives egged on by President Trump.
But even if Democrats succeed in California, questions remain about whether it will be enough to shift the balance of power in Congress.
To regain the House majority, Democrats will need to flip three Republican seats in next year’s midterm elections. The margin was so small that maps of Republican states were redrawn to keep Democrats in the minority.
Texas was the first state to signal it would follow Trump’s edict, sparking a rare redistricting arms race in mid-decade that quickly erupted in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom sought to leverage the state’s vast congressional seats.
Tuesday. That would give Democrats five seats in the House, an outcome that would largely offset Republican efforts in Texas, where the bill has already passed.
Democrats and Republicans in other states are also moving to redraw their maps, but it’s too early to tell which party will reap the net gains or predict voter sentiment a year from now, as elections skewed in either direction could render the remaps meaningless.
Republican leaders have approved new maps that are likely to gain new Republican seats in each, with Republicans in Ohio potentially gaining two more seats, and Republican leaders in Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas and Florida are considering or considering redrawing their maps. Collectively, these moves could give Republicans at least 10 new seats, according to experts who track redistricting efforts.
To combat this, Virginia Democrats would give lawmakers the power and option to redraw new maps for next year’s elections, if approved by voters. Illinois leaders are considering redistricting options, and New York state is suing to redistrict Republican-controlled districts. But concerns about legal challenges have already hampered the party’s efforts in Maryland, and moves are slowing in Illinois because of the possibility of diluting Black votes.
So far, the partisan game appears to be favoring Republicans.
“Democrats can’t get past the gerrymandering problem. The math simply doesn’t add up,” said David Daley, senior fellow at the nonprofit FairVote. “They don’t have enough opportunities or goals.”
Complicating factors for Democrats
It’s not just political calculations that Democrats must consider. In many states, that plan is hampered by a combination of constitutional restrictions, legal deadlines, and the reality that many state maps cannot be easily redrawn for partisan interests. In California, Proposition 50 represents a departure from state policy.
Democrats’ hesitation in states such as Maryland and Illinois underscores tensions within the party as it seeks to maximize its partisan advantage and establish a House majority that could block President Trump’s final two years in office.
“Despite deeply shared dissatisfaction with the current state of our country, Maryland’s mid-cycle redistricting presents the reality that the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risks to Democrats are catastrophic, and the credibility of existing maps is undermined,” Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson said last week..
In Illinois, Black Democrats have expressed concern about the plan, pledging to oppose maps that would reduce the proportion of black voters in historically black Congressional districts.
“We can’t just think of this as a short-term fight. We have to think about the long-term consequences of doing something like that,” said state Sen. Willie Preston, chairman of the Illinois Senate Black Caucus.
Adding to these concerns, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority could limit lawmakers’ ability to consider race when redrawing maps. The outcome, and its impact on the 2026 midterm elections, will depend largely on the timing and scope of the court’s decision.
The court has been asked to rule on the case by January, but a decision could be delayed further. Timing is critical, as many states have set filing deadlines for 2026 congressional elections or are holding primaries in the spring and summer.
If the court strikes down this provision, known as Section 2, Republicans could pick up at least 12 seats across the southern states.
“I think all of these things will contribute to Congress’ decision,” said Kareem Clayton, deputy director of the Brennan Center for Justice. He added that the impending court ruling “adds further uncertainty to an already uncertain time.”
Republican-led states continue to advance
Support for Prop. 50 has been joined by support from some of the party’s biggest names, including former President Obama, and momentum among national Democrats hoping to regain control of Congress after the midterm elections.
In an email to supporters Monday, Newsom said his fundraising goal had been met and encouraged supporters to join him in other states.
“I ask you to help other states, including Indiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina, all of which are trying to block Republican redistricting efforts in the middle of the decade. More on that soon,” Newsom wrote.
Starting Monday, Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun plans to launch a package of measures to “protect Hoosiers from efforts by other states to weaken their voice in Washington and ensure fair representation of Hoosiers in Congress.”
In Kansas, the Republican chair of the state Senate said last week that Republicans in the chamber had asked him to call a special session to redraw the state’s map. Republicans in the state House of Representatives will also need to join forces to move forward.
In Louisiana, Republicans are taking control of the Legislature, aiming to postpone the state’s 2026 primary election. The measure is intended to give lawmakers time to redraw the maps if the Supreme Court rules in a federal voting case.
If Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) condemns the practice of judges drawing districts based on race, the state is likely to jump into a mid-decade redistricting race.
Shaniqua McClendon, director of Vote Save America, said Republicans’ push for widespread redistricting underscores why Democrats should follow California’s lead, even if they dislike the tactic.
“Democrats have to really think about what’s at stake. I understand they don’t like the means, but we have to think about the ends,” McClendon said. “We have to be able to take back the House. That’s the only way to hold Mr. Trump accountable.”
Fair Vote’s Daley said New York’s disenfranchisement of Black and Latino voters in Congressional districts would be a “hurray” for Democrats looking to improve their chances in the 2026 midterm elections.
Dave Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Utah could also give Democrats an outside opportunity to pick up seats. This summer, a court ruled on the state’s congressional map, resulting in two districts that Democrats could flip.
Wasserman called the various redistricting efforts “an arms race…Democrats are using what Republicans did in Texas as a justification for California, and Republicans are using California as a justification for their actions in other states.”
“Political tribalism”
Some political observers said California’s election results could trigger further political gamesmanship in other states.
“I think the passage of Proposition 50 in California could signal to other states that if voters are under attack, they may support redistricting in the middle of the decade if necessary,” said Jeffrey Weiss, a New York Law School professor who heads the New York State Institute on Elections, Census, and Redistricting. “I think it’s definitely going to give a place like New York the impetus to move forward.”
Like California, New York needs voters to approve a constitutional amendment, but that won’t happen in time for the midterm elections.
“And Republican states that have been reluctant to redistrict may be emboldened to say, ‘If California voters support redistricting in mid-decade, they might support it here,'” Weiss said.
Eric Nisbett, director of Northwestern University’s Center for Communication and Public Policy, believes the mid-decade redistricting trend is gaining momentum as part of a broader problem.
“This is symptomatic of a 20-year trend of increasing polarization and political tribalism,” he said. “And unfortunately, our tribalism is now erupting, not only among each other, but also between nations.”
He argued that both parties are sacrificing democratic norms, procedural fairness, and the idea of representative democracy for political gain.
“I’m worried about what this outcome will ultimately be,” he said.
Ceballos reported from Washington and Mehta from Los Angeles.
