A new poll shows former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter’s approval ratings in the 2026 gubernatorial race have suffered after an incident with a television reporter in which rival candidates questioned her character.
A poll released Friday by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government and co-sponsored by the Times showed Porter as the clear front-runner, but he trailed behind Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco in late October.
Still, nearly half of registered voters surveyed are still undecided, a sign that few Californians are paying attention, having been swamped by costly elections and elections in recent months. Porter remains the most popular Democratic candidate, which is important in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006.
“She’s the top Democrat out of all the different Democrats that are participating right now,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “But that’s because no one on the Democratic side has really stepped out of the pack. It’s kind of a political vacuum at the moment.”
The gubernatorial race remained stalled for much of the year, first as Californians waited for former Vice President Kamala Harris to decide whether to jump into the race. It wasn’t until late July that Harris announced, “No.” And a few weeks later, Californians were captivated by a special election to redraw the state’s House districts. The special election set off a bitter, expensive, high-stakes political battle that could help determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Now that the special election is over, gubernatorial candidates “can command the public’s attention,” DiCamillo said.
“It’s time for someone to make a breakthrough,” he said.
But that’s not Sen. Alex Padilla. If the senator decides to jump into the race, polls show he is the top Democratic candidate but not a strong favorite. Voters gave him the highest favorability rating of any current or potential candidate for governor. However, after months of speculation,
The new poll shows Mr. Bianco is supported by 13% of state voters, followed by Mr. Porter with 11%. A Berkeley poll in August showed Porter leading all candidates with 17% support, followed by Bianco in second place with 10%.
Bianco representatives said his lead in the polls is evidence that his campaign is resonating with voters.
“It’s clear Californians want a new path forward,” campaign manager Erica Melendrez said. “Sheriff Bianco represents a safe California, an affordable California, an educated California, and a leader of integrity and character that all Californians can be proud of.”
Mr. DiCamillo said Mr. Porter’s 6% drop in the past three months was significant given the closeness of California’s gubernatorial race, but cautioned that the 2026 race is still early and that much will change before the June gubernatorial primary.
Porter’s campaign declined to comment on the drop in approval ratings, noting that he still leads the Democratic field.
“Poll after poll continues to show Katy as the strongest Democrat in the race, driven by a growing coalition of grassroots supporters rather than powerful special interests,” spokesman Peter Opitz said. “Californians know her track record against Donald Trump and trust her to address the cost crisis, from rising rent and housing costs to rising health insurance premiums and high child care costs.”
Porter came under fire in October after his abusive comments during the US presidential election. When a Sacramento-based journalist asked Porter what he would say to Californians who voted for Trump, the UC Irvine law professor said he didn’t need their support.
After Watts asked a follow-up question, Porter accused the reporter of being “unnecessarily logical,” raised his hand, and then said, “I don’t want everything to be on camera.”
The next day, a 2021 video of Porter berating a staff member during a video conference with members of the Biden administration was released. “Stay out of my shot!” Porter said to the young woman after she came into view in the background. Porter’s comments in the video were first reported by Politico.
Porter later admitted in a TV news interview that he had mishandled the incident, but also said his comments were “inappropriate” and apologized to the staff, explaining that he values them and could have handled the situation better.
Her Democratic gubernatorial rivals obtained the video. Former Secretary of State Betty Yee called on Porter to withdraw from the race, and businessman Stephen Krubeck and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa attacked Porter in ads about the scandal.
Although difficult to assess, it appears that the negative press and publicity surrounding these incidents took a toll on Porter’s reputation. No other candidate experienced a similar shift in support.
A new poll found that 26% of California voters had a favorable rating for Porter, while 33% had an unfavorable rating and the rest had no rating. This is a significant decrease from when she was running for Senate last year, when 45% of voters had a favorable opinion of her as of February 2024 and 27% had an unfavorable opinion of her.
Political scientist Eric Schickler, co-director of the Berkeley Institute, which conducted the poll, said Porter’s appearance of vulnerability makes the gubernatorial race more attractive to incumbent candidates and candidates considering entering the gubernatorial race.
The poll found that, excluding Porter and Bianco, 8% of voters support former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (Democratic). A similar proportion supported conservative commentator Steve Hilton. Mr. Villaraigosa received the support of 5% of voters, Mr. Yee 3%, and California voters. Tony Thurmond in Public Education 1%. Krubeck and former Democratic Rep. Ian Calderon registered less than 1%.
The other candidate, billionaire developer Rick Caruso, was supported by 3% of voters, polls showed. Caruso said Monday night that he was still considering running for governor or Los Angeles mayor and would make a decision in the coming weeks.
Sickler said Tuesday’s election results could indicate that moderate or pro-business Democrats, including Caruso, may not fare as well in Democratic states like California. Voters across the country delivered a sharp rebuke to Trump, electing Democrats in key elections in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, and passing Proposition 50, a ballot measure in California aimed at helping Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 election.
“With someone like Mr. Caruso, his case would probably look even stronger if Democrats remained on the defensive and looked confused,” Sickler said. “But after the passage of Proposition 50 and the big Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, I think the argument that we need to dramatically change what we do is less likely to resonate, at least in states like California.”
The Berkeley IGS/Times poll surveyed 8,141 California registered voters online from Oct. 20 to Oct. 27 in English and Spanish. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction for the entire sample, with even larger margins of error for subgroups.
