President Trump’s decision to punish tariffs on most US trading partners may have calmed financial markets last week, but California’s $59 billion agricultural industry rarely quells uncertainty.
Trump kept 10% blanket tariffs small in countries around the world, but he charges much higher collections on products from Canada and China, two of California’s top markets for almonds, pistachios, oranges and other crops.
Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. Beijing retaliated by slapping 125% tariffs on American goods, including California nuts and dairy products.
Canada retaliated against US tariffs with a 25% tax on US goods. This has already been reduced to sales of California produce, such as fresh produce and wine.
Central Valley farmers say they are nervous about what will happen if Trump advances bigger and so-called mutual tariffs after a 90-day suspension. If the upheaval changes continue, they fear it can become a spiral in a long-lasting and damaging conflict.
“Scary,” said Christine Genpele, an almond farmer in Celes, near Modesto. “No one wants to be at the heart of chaos.”
Bianca Caprierian, Reedley’s fourth-generation citrus farmer and co-Chief Executive Officer of Creekside Organic, said sales were already struggling.
“All in the end, everyone will feel that,” she said.
Elsewhere in Fresno County, farmer John Deaner said he has not yet affected the sales and prices of his crops, but he has seen them well.
“People are waiting with breath,” he said. “I think everyone in their business is worried about what the outcome is.”
Trump says he will bring in “fair trade” to protect US workers and reduce the trade deficit.
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last week that the White House is to support farmers “when necessary.” Details have not been made public yet.
There are many risks in the California agricultural industry, which ships nuts, rice, tomatoes and other products around the world. The state is the country’s top agricultural exporter, with global sales totaling in 2022.
China, Canada and other countries could put a heavy burden on California’s agricultural operations as they retaliate against US tariffs by imposing their own taxes on American goods.
Representatives from the California Agricultural Association serve as members of the Trump administration and Congress.
“California farmers and ranchers risk taking the brunt of potential retaliatory actions resulting from the broad imposition of global tariffs,” said Shannon Douglas, President of the California Farm Bureau Federation.
Douglas said in an email that many growers are already struggling with chronic labor shortages, inflation and other challenges, and retaliation measures by other countries could lead to industry instability.
“While she believes targeted trade measures will help protect California’s production and serve as a useful negotiation tactic, she said, “We are still waiting to see what other countries will take as further tensions could put California’s farming viability at stake as a result of these tariffs.”
California Food and Agriculture Director Karen Ross said he is deeply concerned about the potential consequences.
“California farmers are already very challenging,” Ross said in an interview. “The profit margins are narrowed down quite a bit. The export market is very important.”
In recent years, Canada is a California agricultural export of wine, strawberries, lettuce, oranges and more. The European Union ranks 2nd, while China ranks 3rd, offering a thriving market for nuts, dairy products and other products.
These trade relations are now beginning to change. For example, in addition to Canadians, Canadians have also begun.
“It’s hard to say how long it will last, but it certainly created a lot of anxiety,” Ross said.
An economist, released last year, warned that if Trump imposes massive tariffs, responses from trade partners could lead to billions of dollars in losses for California’s agricultural industry.
Professor UC Davis Professor Colin A. Carter co-authored the study, saying that China’s retaliatory tariffs are much higher than those analyzed, and suffocating Chinese purchases of pistachios, almonds and dairy products.
Ross said farmers hope that the economic turmoil is short-lived and will be resolved soon. If that continues, she said, “We’ll need mitigation measures.”
Farmers help ease the blow of tariff-related losses on crops such as soybeans during Trump’s first term. However, California farmers produce a variety of crops, primarily for their government compensation.
The number one export crop in California is almonds.
The global price boom ten years ago led growers. However, over the past few years, the total area of almond orchards has begun to fall due to low prices.
California currently produces an estimated 76% of the world’s almonds, including India, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and China.
Genper and her brothers grow almonds on 135 acres in Stanislaus and Merced County, and their nuts are sold in the US and overseas through the Blue Diamond Growers Cooperative.
Genper said it’s too early to know how tariffs affect almond prices, but she is concerned about the current uncertainty.
“Agriculture is uncertain, it’s risk and gambling. No more needed,” she said. “It’s all overwhelming.”
She said the situation was bad enough when the adoption of US tariffs in 2018 prompted China to retaliate for growers of almonds, walnuts and other crops.
“We got a hammer,” Genpale said. “We lost the entire Chinese market to Australia.”
China bought fewer nuts following its first round of tariffs, which contributed to a sustained decline in almond prices in California. Prices have been sluggish in recent years, and orchards have been sold at Central Valley locations.
“Prices had just returned,” Jemperle said. “Now we’re hit by more tariffs and we can’t see the end.”
She said she is worried about the possibility of losing other important markets, and at the same time she will see US tariffs pushing higher prices for imported agricultural equipment, fertilizers and other supplies.
“This just makes everything we do difficult,” she said. “It keeps me at night and it gives me a bad dream.”
Wearing overalls and work boots, Jempale walked through the orchard with a clipboard under her arm, stopping to check for traps hanging from the tree to monitor. Her four border collies followed behind, sprinting through tall grasses and wild flowers.
Genper said that because of operating expenses and low prices, she and her brother Erich spent about four years without making any profits, living out of their savings.
“At this point, I’m on the verge of losing everything,” she said. “I think going through this will only seal the deal about killing a small family’s farm.”
California citrus growers also ship fruit to Korea, Canada, Japan and other countries.
Kaprielian’s company Creekside Organics sells organic citrus and vegetables to a group of growers. We usually ship a significant amount of mandarins, oranges and lemons to Canada.
However, exports to Canada have declined this year.
“We’ve seen these orders go down and run out,” Caprierian said. “We feel it’s effective.”
At the family packing site in Reedley, Caprierian saw the mandarin roll from the machine onto a bed of metal rollers. The rubber gloves scanned the fruits moving forward, grabbed mandarins with the wounds, dropped them into chutes and tracked them into juice plants.
Other mandarins were rolled up for sorting and boxed to be sold under the Fruit World brand.
“As an industry, I don’t think we’re sure about the future,” Caprierian said. “If we start to lose these export markets, that means we’ll bring about an influx of supply in the domestic market.”
The concern is that the domestic market is unable to absorb such influx, which could lead to lower prices. At the same time, she said US tariffs have pushed up costs for growers and already erode small profit margins.
“That’s a really big concern in California agriculture in general,” Caprierian said. “Do you have enough money to go back to the farm and do all the work to keep farming up again next year?”
She said the economic disruption will be added to the grower’s challenge list. Growers are also working on regulation, long term, and it.
When she was growing up, Caprierian often helped her father on farms and packing houses. Her family continues to grow citrus fruits on approximately 500 acres in Fresno and Tulea counties.
Recently, she said, she feels more uncertain about the future.
“It’s getting hard, so I don’t know if my family will farm in five years or if they can hang in ten years,” she said.
Kaprielian said she loves farming, but in recent years she has seen several other businesses struggle to go out of business.
“You can take so many hits,” she said. “I really hope that our politicians understand that this is affecting real people.”
A short drive from the Packing House, Caprierian stopped by the Mandarin grove. Choosing one, she cut the skin with a knife and lifted the juicy half into her mouth.
With the citrus season approaching its end, Caprierian said he wanted to see the grove already harvested. But as demand fell, the harvest slowed, she said, partly due to trade disputes with Canada.
“Sales are slowing,” Caprierian said. “I feel more confusing than I remember.”
With the dramatic changes in Trump’s announcement, farmers thought they needed to wait to see how the situation would develop.
“We move forward as usual and pray that it all is sorted out,” said the dinner, which farms tomatoes, garlic, almonds, cotton and other crops in Fresno County. “Everyone is looking to keep their industry healthy.”
Diener has been farming since 1980 and has overcome many changes, including previous changes in federal policies.
“I don’t know why this area won’t thrive in the long term,” Dinner said. “Where do you get other places where you’re growing?”
Ross said many growers hope there will be negotiations on a better trade deal to benefit farming.
“We all hope that the outcome will be a more robust trading opportunity. But the longer the uncertainty and unpredictability, the more harm it will be. “The more uncertainty it’s difficult to do business.”
