China is replacing diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected, a move that is good for the climate and good for air pollution, and could change global fuel demand and the future of heavy goods transportation.
In 2020, almost all new trucks in China ran on diesel. But just five years later, in the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy-duty truck sales. And that percentage is up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. British research firm BMI predicts electric trucks will account for nearly 46% of new car sales this year and nearly 60% next year.
Heavy trucks transport the lifeblood of the modern economy. They also contribute significantly to global carbon emissions.
Trucking has long been considered difficult to decarbonize because electric trucks require heavy batteries and carry less cargo than trucks using energy-dense diesel. Proponents of liquefied natural gas see it as a less polluting option while electric heavy vehicle technology matures.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been cooled into a liquid fuel for easier storage and transportation.
China’s trucking fleet, the world’s second largest after the United States, still primarily uses diesel, but things are changing. Demand for transportation fuels has plateaued, according to the International Energy Agency, and diesel use in China may decline sooner than most expected, said Christopher Doleman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
With sales of electric trucks now outpacing LNG models in China, demand for fossil fuels may decline and “they may never catch on in other countries,” he said.
Costs come down mainly due to electric trucks in China
As prices have fallen, the share of electric vehicles in new car sales has more than tripled, rising from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025. Sales of electric trucks outpaced LNG-fueled vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World.
Although electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel vehicles and about 18 percent more expensive than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10 to 26 percent over the life of the vehicle.
“When it comes to heavy trucks, Chinese fleet owners are very profit-oriented,” Doleman said.
Early sales were boosted by generous government incentives, including a 2024 program for truck owners to trade in their older vehicles. Owners can receive up to about $19,000 to replace their old truck with a new or electric model.
Investments in charging infrastructure are also driving demand for electric trucks.
Major logistics hubs, including the Yangtze River Delta region, are adding dedicated charging stations along key cargo routes. Cities like Beijing and Shanghai have built large charging hubs along highways that can charge trucks in minutes.
CATL, the world’s largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer, announced in May that it will launch a time-saving battery swapping system for heavy-duty trucks and plans a nationwide network of swapping stations that will cover 150,000 kilometers (approximately 93,000 miles) of China’s 184,000 kilometers (approximately 114,000 miles) of highways.
Global energy markets will be affected
A surge in electric truck sales could reduce diesel use and reshape future LNG demand, analysts say.
Diesel consumption in China, the second-largest fuel consumer after the United States, will fall to 3.9 million barrels per day in June 2024, an 11% year-on-year decline and the largest decline since mid-2021, partly reflecting the shift to LNG and electric trucks.
Tim Daiss of APAC Energy Consultancy said: “The rise of China’s electric truck sector is one of the most underreported stories of the global energy transition, especially given its potential impact on regional diesel trade flows.”
LNG truck sales peaked in September 2023 and March 2024 after China eased transport restrictions imposed during the coronavirus pandemic, said Yang Liuhanzi Yang of the Beijing International Clean Transportation Council. Sales decreased by 6% by June 2025 due to the proliferation of electric trucks.
Shell’s 2025 LNG outlook predicts that imported LNG demand in China, the world’s largest LNG importing country, will continue to increase, partly due to the impact of LNG trucks. It also suggests that LNG trucking may expand to other markets such as India.
New York-based research firm Rhodium Group estimates that China’s electric trucks are already reducing oil demand by more than 1 million barrels a day.
But Doleman sees LNG as a “transitional phase” that is unlikely to be seen outside of China. In China, vast pipeline infrastructure, abundant domestic gas production, and by-products such as coke oven gas have created conditions that facilitate LNG-fueled trucking not found in other countries.
China has new vehicle emissions standards that limit multiple pollutants and set average greenhouse gas targets across manufacturers’ fleets. This would make it “nearly impossible” for companies that rely solely on fossil fuel vehicles to comply, Yang said.
A 2020 ICCT study found that LNG-fueled trucks reduce emissions by 2% to 9% over 100 years, but could lead to more pollution in the short term due to leaks of methane, a potent global warming gas that can trap more than 80 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.
Modern diesel has come close to matching LNG in air quality performance.
China focuses on global electric truck market
China, already the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, is eyeing the global electric truck market.
Bill Russo, founder and CEO of AutoMobility Ltd., a Shanghai-based consultancy, said Chinese automakers are producing most major components in-house, from batteries to motors to electronics, to keep costs down and accelerate truck production while ensuring the various parts work seamlessly.
China’s vibrant delivery industry, especially urban cargo trucks, is an early testing ground for these vehicles, he noted.
According to a report by McKinsey & Company, from 2021 to 2023, exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks, including EVs, to the Middle East and North Africa increased by about 73% annually, while shipments to Central and South America increased by 46%. The proportion of electric vehicles is expected to increase, but limited charging infrastructure may pose a challenge.
China’s Sany Heavy Industries announced that it will start exporting electric trucks to Europe in 2026. The company has already exported some electric trucks to the United States, Asian countries such as Thailand and India, and the United Arab Emirates.
In June, Chinese EV maker BYD broke ground on an electric truck and bus factory in Hungary, in line with Europe’s mandatory goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from new trucks by 90% by 2040 compared to 2019.
Separate information suggests that the price of zero-emission trucks in Europe needs to fall by about half to become an affordable alternative to diesel.
Volvo told The Associated Press it would not comment on its competitors but said it welcomed “competition on a level playing field.” Scania did not respond.
“Things are changing dramatically,” Dice said.
Gozal writes for The Associated Press.
