MEXICO CITY (AP) – Recent heavy rains in central-eastern Mexico have left at least 76 people dead and dozens more missing, once again raising questions about the government’s ability to warn people of severe weather in a timely manner.
Authorities continue to say last week’s heavy rains, which caused landslides and river flooding, were unpredictable. Residents say they have never seen anything like it. But researchers say climate change has accelerated these phenomena and made them more frequent, so what was once considered normal no longer exists. And that requires preparation.
“We are increasingly affected by these phenomena, we don’t know what to do, we fail without adequate warning, and we cannot continue like this,” said Cristian Dominguez, a researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Change at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. She recalled that last year’s crisis was related to drought, but this year it rained.
This is a concern both for Mexico and for countries with more resources and advanced technology, such as the United States, which suffered devastating flash floods in Texas this year that killed at least 136 people. Experts say society and governments seem stuck in the past and have not accepted that severe weather is now the norm.
In the case of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, who served as president last year, is a trained scientist with a background in climate change. But while he announced this week that he would review precautionary procedures, he did not mention climate change and argued that it is impossible to predict exactly how much rain will fall in some areas.
Carlos Valdes, former director of Mexico’s National Disaster Prevention Center, said “we need to consider the language used” in how to communicate the danger of an event. “The first thing we have to do is recognize that change is occurring…The atypical is now the most typical.”
Technology gaps and prevention
There is a technological gap. For example, Dominguez recognized that Mexico doesn’t have all the equipment, such as real-time river level measurements that can provide detailed hydrological forecasts, or enough weather radar to help meteorologists make better predictions.
But he stressed that existing forecasts could allow for far better prevention strategies if authorities not only prepare for hurricanes, but also consider the potential for hazardous conditions caused by the confluence of different weather systems, as happened last week.
Heavy rains were expected to dump nearly 8 inches (20 centimeters) in the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, a day before major rivers in the northern part of the state crested their banks.
Although it ultimately tripled, Dominguez said the initial forecast should have been enough for residents and authorities to organize.
But in Poza Rica, the worst-hit city, residents began to evacuate their homes as water was already flooding. Some said authorities warned too late. Most people had no idea it would be this bad.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said climate change is causing severe weather to occur outside of expected seasons and in places not normally associated with flood risk.
“When the elements align, severe weather can occur anywhere,” he says.
training and education
Mexico has risk maps and civil defense officials are in charge of warning the public, “but in addition to warnings, the public also needs to understand what is being said,” Dominguez said.
In late 2023, just after Hurricane Otis devastated Acapulco, it became incredibly powerful within hours. A woman who lives in the affected neighborhood said she had heard that a Category 5 hurricane was coming, but she didn’t know it would blow away all the houses.
Experts say not only civil defense personnel need training, but people also need to be educated.
For decades, Mexico has developed new ways to warn of seismic activity in south-central Mexico. With Ortiz’s memory still fresh, Sheinbaum said the administration will put more emphasis on hurricane and rain prevention.
On Friday, thousands of soldiers and authorities worked in Veracruz state to reopen roads cut off by landslides and washed away bridges. But in the neighboring state of Tamaulipas just to the north, officials monitoring the Panuco River issued clearer warnings of potential flooding on Thursday, when the water had already risen nearly a foot (30 centimeters).
Sheinbaum said Friday that the region’s mayors were informed in time and nearly 500 people had already been moved to evacuation centers. River levels continued to rise on Saturday.
“If the authorities act properly, nothing will happen,” Valdez said.
