Vice President Kamala Harris has never met Maria Rodriguez and probably never will, but Democratic presidential candidates should be concerned about her and voters like her.
The single mother of three from Henderson, Nevada, said she used to vote Democratic, but is worried about the economy (i.e. the price of everything) and plans to vote for former President Trump.
Four years ago, Rodriguez voted for Joe Biden in hopes of a stronger economy. But no matter what government statisticians say about the economy, the 36-year-old now finds it harder to pay the bills, even though she works two or three jobs as a nurse and home-care worker.
“It’s really hard to go to the supermarket right now,” Rodriguez said last week as she pushed her nearly empty cart through the aisles of a Dollar Tree discount store. “Before, I’d go in with $100 and come out with a full cart, and that was enough. Now, I can only buy about 10 items with $100. It’s like I’m living before payday.”
“I was potentially a Democrat,” she said, “but I changed my mind because the country is in decline.”
Views like Rodriguez’s go a long way to explaining why Nevada, a state won by Democrats in the past four presidential elections, remains a hotbed of contention in 2024. Harris holds a slim 0.6% lead in recent polls, according to data compiled by Real Clear Politics — a notable improvement for Democrats, considering that Trump was leading by a high single-digit percentage point in opinion polls before President Biden dropped out of the race in July.
The Silver State is one of seven states considered key to victory in the 2024 presidential election, which typically chooses the candidate supported by the rest of the U.S. The winner of Nevada has gone on to win the presidential election all but two times: in 1976, when Nevada chose Republican Gerald Ford over Democrat Jimmy Carter, and in 2016, when Nevada and its six electoral votes went to Hillary Clinton over Trump.
In Nevada, which most experts expect to remain close leading up to the Nov. 5 election, Trump will likely rely heavily on Nevadans’ fears about the economy to win.
The former president is scheduled to hold a rally in Las Vegas on Friday night, which will also feature another former Republican president, Ronald Reagan.
“When you’re making that decision, I think you should ask yourself: Am I happier now than I was four years ago,” Reagan said in a video of his final debate with President Carter in 1980. “Is it easier to go to a store and buy things than it was four years ago?”
The question may work to Trump’s advantage this year, as national and state polls continue to show the economy remains voters’ top issue. The party in power typically pays the price for such sentiments: An August Emerson College poll found that 37% of Nevada voters surveyed cited the economy as their top issue, with a related topic of rising home prices coming in second at 15%.
Nevada’s resilience in presidential elections is due in part to its large share of eligible voters.
“There’s a big group of independents that makes the state unpredictable,” said Tom Riley, a former Clark County, Nevada, public servant and now academic. “They were 10% for Trump in January, and now the polls are all over the place and they might be joining Harris. I think the presence of those voters makes the state more volatile.”
Frustrating for Democrats is the fact that not all voters are being swayed by improving economic data: The purchasing power of “real wages” has increased across the country in the last year.
The state’s unemployment rate was 5.5% in August, above the national average of 3.7%, but the Las Vegas metropolitan area’s unemployment rate was 4%, roughly in line with the U.S. These numbers pale in comparison to the 31% unemployment rate that hit the state at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation will peak at about 9% in 2022, including in Nevada, where it peaked by this summer. Prices have fallen in some areas, including dairy, fruits and vegetables.
Gas prices in Nevada have averaged $3.98 a gallon this month, above the national average of $3.27 but down significantly from $4.62 a year ago.
The boom and bust cycles that Nevadans know all too well hit the housing market especially hard, especially during the Great Recession and the early days of the pandemic.
Apartment rents are rising dramatically in 2022, with the average rent in the Las Vegas metropolitan area at $1,805, an increase of nearly a third from just two years ago. Only three other metropolitan areas saw a larger increase. The average rent is now $2,070, and while increases are slowing, some people are still struggling to pay their rent.
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A receptionist at a senior center in Las Vegas’ working-class northwest neighborhood said her clients have had to rely on family, while others have been evicted and forced into living in their cars or on the streets.
“Rents have gone up since Biden became president, and they went up when Trump was president,” said a worker who only gave her first name, Karen. “I don’t know where the blame lies.”
She said she didn’t know much about Harris but liked what she saw at the Democratic National Convention.
“She has lots of new ideas that will help, including the proposed expansion of the child care tax credit,” Cullen said.
In interviews with 17 people conducted by Henderson and others in Las Vegas last week, six said they planned to vote for Harris, five for Trump, and six said they weren’t sure at all. Half of those who are still undecided said they were inclined to support the former president, and the other half said they would support the current vice president.
Trump’s supporters have emphasized his record as a businessman and tended to emphasize profits: Most things were cheaper when the Republican was in the White House, they say, and now is the time to bring him back.
Some echoed President Trump’s frequent complaints about the harm posed to the US by migrants crossing the border illegally from Mexico (though the number of migrants crossing the border has fallen in recent months).
Most Harris supporters said they trusted her to enact the reforms she has promised, such as imposing sanctions on retailers and others determined to be involved in price gouging. Democrats said they were tired of the demonization of immigrants.
Rodriguez, a mother of three, said her parents came from Mexico legally, and she complained about people who came without authorization and received government benefits.
“When people come to this country, they basically have everything handed to them,” said Rodriguez, who grew up in Orange County. “To me, I don’t think that’s fair.”
Monica Silva, who was in the next aisle at the Henderson Dollar Tree, offered a different perspective: She said Trump is “always talking about the Mexico problem.”
She added: “He’s always criticising them and blaming them, but that’s not true. That’s not the problem of our country.”
Mr. Silva, 77, who emigrated from Chile more than half a century ago, sees Mr. Harris as someone who can keep price gouging in check.
“I just think she has the power, and she has the experience as a lawyer, and I think she can get things done more than most people,” Silva said.
Shara Rule, who works for an electric scooter company, said she doesn’t think Harris or the Biden administration are to blame for the rising prices, and she expects them to come down.
“Trump is just greedy. He’s just looking out for his own interests,” said Ruhl, 61. “She’s smart and has good judgment. I think she’ll lead us in the right direction economically.”
Susan Kendall, director of medical records at a nursing home, said she felt Democrats were mostly talking but Trump was doing more.
She fondly recalled the $1,200 “Economic Impact Payment” COVID-19 relief money she received when Trump was still president.
“That would have made a huge difference for people, and Biden didn’t even try,” said Kendall, 56. (Indeed, Biden signed the American Rescue Plan shortly after taking office, providing $1,400 to every middle-class family.)
“I don’t know exactly what Trump did, but whatever he did, it worked,” Kendall said. “I feel like Trump is focused domestically and focused on helping people at home, not helping people abroad.”
The ad featuring Reagan resonated deeply with her. “It reminded me of where I was four years ago,” she said. “I think that makes it easier to make a decision.”
Mandy, a 35-year-old housewife, said the rising prices meant she could no longer buy all the snacks and groceries she wanted from the supermarket.
“I can’t afford it right now,” she said.
“I think this country needs to be run like a business,” said Mandy, a two-time voter for Trump who declined to give her last name. “Not the way Biden is running it right now. He’s a politician, not a businessman.”
Kathleen Clark, who had come to buy yarn to buy crocheted hats for friends and family, said both sides are wrong to think the president can change the economic situation in the short term.
Clark, 66, who day trades the stock market, said long-term micro- and macroeconomic forces drive the economy. He also doesn’t believe in campaign promises by Trump and Harris, such as eliminating the tip tax. “They can’t do that until they know what to do to replace the tip tax,” Clark said.
Clark also questioned people talking about how hard they are struggling. She said she knows from her time in retail that kids who have returned to school in recent weeks are wearing some pretty expensive clothes.
“These kids are out there with $600 tennis shoes and backpacks. They’ve got $1,000 on their backs,” she said, laughing. “They’re not hurting.”
Clark, one of Nevada’s ubiquitous independent candidates, said his vote will depend on one uncontroversial factor.
“I’m voting for Harris. Why? Because she’s a woman,” she said. “I don’t believe in Biden. I don’t believe in Trump. I don’t believe in anybody else. But it’s about time. Nothing else.”
