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InsighthubNews > Environment > “Predictive Risk”: How Trump’s cuts to weather experts put California at risk
Environment

“Predictive Risk”: How Trump’s cuts to weather experts put California at risk

June 5, 2025 8 Min Read
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"Predictive Risk": How Trump's cuts to weather experts put California at risk
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It is a national lab at the University of Maryland and will work with the National Maritime and Atmospheric Administration to determine where the smoke is heading. Scientists who don’t even remember these names help to warn the downwind of the wind about dangerous air quality levels.

Approximately 30 minutes’ drive away, it provides the majority of the work used to be extremely important and sometimes threatening to communities across the state.

And it is the National Weather Service, working with orbital oceans and satellites buoys and satellites to grasp the risks of wind and dryness that can drive catastrophic fires in densely populated areas such as Los Angeles.

Craig McLean, a 40-year veteran of NOAA who served as the lead research and acting scientist until his retirement in 2022, said it wasn’t just being forced out of their work and kicked out of their work, putting the standards of their program at risk.

The Trump administration proposes to go further and calls for the removal of an entire research team that provides predictors with tools to make assessments. The satellite operation facility was hit by deep layoffs. The buoy and other equipment contracts are pending during the Department of Commerce review.

It’s a cascade of delays and recessions that could become apparent to the public earlier than later, MacLean said.

“The predictive risks are clear to us,” he told The Times. “I think it’s ridiculous to assume that it’s not – whether it’s because of fire season and hydrology, or because of atmospheric rivers and flooding and flooding, is it just because of strong winds?”

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Trump wants both predictions and responses

The Trump administration’s NOAA cut appears to involve around 600 employees, or about 15% of its workforce, based on self-reports from employees and the National Weather Services employee organization. However, the agency itself generally provides little detail in its scope of reductions.

“In one day, NOAA lost 27,000 experience when the voluntary early retirement separation initiative was published. This is an extraordinary experience with an agency of 12,000 staff.”

“A lot of what’s going on at NOAA is interpretive,” he added. “At the end of the day, when the weather room or local SEA grant extension agents let you know what’s going to happen, there are many interpretations of the environment, local geography, and local roads. That experience is gone.”

However, the dangerous weather phenomenon by NOAA and the National Weather Service (if they’re not ready to enter the West Fire Season and East Hurricane Season) could exacerbate the Federal Emergency Management Agency as they have lost nearly a third of their employees since January. This week, Reuters reported that President Trump’s fem chief David Richardson told staff he was telling him.

Trump has already raised concerns that he has refused disaster relief to the state for political reasons. Trump to California after the fire destroyed Los Angeles in the first three months of his presidency and refused a disaster relief request from Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein.

Californians may also find themselves more vulnerable to other natural disasters. FEMA Californians cancel a $33 million grant to remodel their homes to Gird in the earthquake, raising “severe concerns” among state officials. “This move must be reversed before the next tragedy strikes,” California Sen. Adam Schiff heads to the agency.

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More chaos in the port and fishing

Each year, before the fishing season begins, NOAA publishes a series of scientific reports examining fish populations and environmental conditions.

However, this spring, staff will cut NOAA and file an emergency lawsuit on the East Coast, allowing them to start fishing by May 1st. In Alaska, two Republican senators from the state appealed to the White House to sue fisheries again.

“The federal government has to do two things. They need to do robust research for accurate stock valuations and timely regulations on open fisheries. That’s right. If the federal government doesn’t, you’ll ruin the hardworking fishermen.” “To be honest, it doesn’t look great right now. I’m really upset.”

Their challenges don’t stop there. Fishing boats are unable to sail on time without reliable forecasts from the National Weather Service, reducing the number of days at sea, resulting in less profits and staff.

Americans are already told to expect higher seafood prices due to Trump’s tariff policy, which increases their seafood import obligations by 10% to 30%.

“Any fisherman who has gone out to collect lobster pots or go fish for tuna needs a reliable weather report,” said Mark Spalding, chairman of the Ocean Foundation. “From fishermen to transport, from NOAA to other companies that rely on weather, currents and storm predictability, blindly and not working, will lead to poor safety.”

Similar issues face the largest port in the country and rely on government experts in maritime surveillance.

“Now the system used to optimize ships entering and leaving the port — the coastal ocean observation system — has been compromised,” Spinrad said. “The president’s budget threatens to eliminate much of its capabilities.”

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Vulnerability throughout the Pacific Ocean

Over the weekend in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegses warned of a “” Chinese attack on Taiwan, threatening the entire Pacific region, including the United States. He touted regional US partnerships on maritime security. This is the perception that conflicts that could arise in the Pacific Ocean become marine battles.

NOAA cuts could threaten US preparations, McLean said.

“Because there is territory throughout the Pacific, NOAA is responsible for providing weather forecasts in these areas,” he said. “The defense community is not entirely dependent on NOAA in military conflicts. We have meteorologists in the air and navy. But we use the NOAA model and we are certainly leading to the base, whether it’s Guam or Hawaii, what NOAA predictions provide.”

For example, the military uses data generated by thousands of buoys deployed and tracked by NOAA, which is considered the gold standard for ocean surveillance. The program faces cuts from the Trump administration due to its connection to climate change.

“There’s a national defense element here,” McLean said. “The defense community relies on what NOAA offers, both in terms of modeling and research.”

What else should I read?

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Michael Wilner
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