Typically, running without a chance of winning the Triple Crown makes the third leg of the series just as interesting as the TV proceedings (Chicago, FBI, or laws and orders) after the final two minutes after the perpetrator is identified and charged.
But this is not this year. The 157th run of the Belmont Stakes has as many plot lines as the “White Lotus” season. It’s simply the best race of the year and yes, it includes the Kentucky Derby.
You have your sentimental favorite, that stretch drive can become a horse racing fan almost anyone.
There’s a villain who kicked the dental racing tradition after winning the Kentucky Derby, as there’s a Preakness connection between the first two legs of the Triple Crown in two weeks. It killed the opportunity to build a new fanbase where races revolve around the Derby and build the potential for Triple Crown winners.
There are fresh aspirants in Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s final race was a victory at Wood Memorial. He was scheduled to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but had sore hooves from both races. His early speed and front-running ability mean that he will take the lead once the horse descends the backstretch. Plus, in addition to the fact that he was trained and rode by Mike Smith, he knows how to win a horse from the gate to the wire in the form of winning, both Hall of Fames.
And finally, you have a wise (professional gambler) horse in Baeza. His talent goes far beyond his early results. He took a strong third place in the Kentucky Derby and came in second in the Santa Anita Derby, behind journalism. He is also trying to find a place in the history of Kentucky Derby winner Majer and his mother Puka, who gave birth to last year. If Baeza wins, he will be the first horse to have a dam that won three classic races. It’s a record.
And that’s half of the eight-headed field.
Anyone who finished first may remember that victory has an asterisk next to it. The Belmont Stakes are considered a champion test for the regular 1 1/2 mile distance and run at an uninteresting 1 1/4 mile distance. The reason is that the race was moved from Belmont Park on Long Island to the Saratoga Race Track in Saratoga Springs, the capital of New York.
The reason the race has been shortened is that horses have to start on turns to race 1 1/2 mile in Saratoga. The organizers didn’t want to happen.
The starting position adds little clarity about who will win. Sovereignty (post 2, 2-1 morning line) should be fine to reach an early run room, especially as Rodriguez is close by. Rodriguez (post 3, 6-1) and Kurds (post 5, 15-1) are expected to compete for the lead early. Crudo’s final victory was his final outing with a 7-1/4-long victory at Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico.
Journalism is destroyed at the morning line odds from post 7 to 8-5.
“He’s been like the same horse since July last summer,” journalism trainer Michael McCarthy told NYRA Publicity. “He does everything you ask a good horse – eat well, train well, stuff well. I thought his energy was overall the same for the last six or seven weeks. Obviously, Saratoga is very good for horses.
If either journalism or sovereignty wins, they will be the first repeat winners of a classic race since Justify in 2018, winning all three triple crown races. No horse has since won multiple classic races. Of course, the Triple Crown Race is only for 3-year-olds. This means that trainers start fresh every year trying to find future winners.
Race desperately needs stars, and Triple Crown Tracking is one way to get them. That’s why trainer Bill Mott and owner Godolphin were surprised when they decided to skip the Preakness stake.
“You’ll never know until they actually do that in the race,” said Michael Banahan, who leads Godolphin in the US.
“So I’m with Belmont this year in Saratoga. He has to go through the same distance again, so I think that’s fine for him. If it’s a regular Belmont in Belmont Park, that would be another question to answer that far.
Possibly poised to unsettling is Baeza, who has only won one race, the maiden of Santa Anita. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby would have been enough to usually bring him to the Kentucky Derby. However, Churchill Downs lowered the total points due to a small field in an obvious offense in the West Coast race.
Trainer John Shirreffs didn’t want to take the horse to Churchill Downs, hoping he had enough scars to take him to the race. Sharrev had been overturned by his owner, so he stood behind Barn 41 while hoping to enter the world’s most famous race. The grace and entry came when Rodriguez was injured due to a pain in his hoof.
Baeza proved his entry into the Derby with a strong finish in third place.
“Every week, I think he’s developed a little more,” Schiretz said. “He’s developed a little more. I see him being a little taller, a little taller and he looks like he really has a good weight. And you really get the image of him.
The most likely scenario is that the winner of the Belmont stakes comes from the four most prominent horses. A consecutive 21 races with no repeated winners could end.
But they run the race to answer that question.
