Negotiators from seven Western states are increasing pressure to reach an agreement outlining how they plan to share the Colorado River’s dwindling waters.
The Trump administration gave states a Tuesday deadline to agree on initial terms of a plan to reduce water use to prevent river reservoirs from dropping to dangerously low levels.
California uses more Colorado River water than any other state, so it will play a central role in any agreement to reduce water withdrawals from the river.
“California is committed to being constructive at the table, advancing ideas and solutions that achieve sustainability and avoid conflict,” said Colorado River Commissioner J.B. Hamby. “What we need now is for people to be able to roll up their sleeves and make the hard decisions and compromises.”
Representatives from seven states whose cities and farms depend on the river have been meeting regularly over the past two years to develop plans to address water shortages after 2026, when current regulations expire.
Differences of opinion persist, pitting the lower reaches of the river, California, Arizona, and Nevada, against the upper reaches of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico. They disagree not only about whose water should be cut and by how much, but also about how much water should be released from Lake Powell, a key reservoir upstream of the Grand Canyon.
Officials representing the state and federal governments are scheduled to hold another round of talks on Monday and Tuesday. As with other negotiating sessions, the location of the talks is being kept secret.
The Colorado River supplies water to cities from Denver to San Diego, 30 Native American tribes, and agricultural communities from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico. The Colorado River has been overexploited for years, so much water has been withdrawn that the river rarely joins the ocean for decades, and Mexico’s once vast swamps have been turned into swamps.
For the past quarter century, the river’s reservoirs have been unrelentingly dry, leaving man-made lakes far beneath the whitish mineral coating on the rocks where the water once lapped.
Scientists have discovered that the past 25 years are likely a once-in-1,200-year event. And research has found that climate warming, caused primarily by fossil fuel use, is leading to longer, mostly dry years.
Lake Mead, the largest reservoir on the Mead River, is currently only 31% full. Additionally, Lake Powell, the river’s second largest reservoir, is at 29% of its capacity.
The Trump administration operates large dams along the river through the Department of the Interior and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
Participants in the talks say federal officials have given them a Nov. 11 deadline to agree on key principles in several areas. The Trump administration has not publicly announced what steps it will take if the states fail to reach an agreement.
An Interior Department spokesperson said in an email that the department “remains focused on achieving the seven-state agreement,” which “maximizes flexibility and cooperation in managing the Colorado River to best serve the 40 million people who depend on the river.”
Without an agreement between the states, the government’s options “will be more limited and less profitable than what could be achieved with a cooperative approach,” the spokesperson said. “We are optimistic that through continued collaboration and good faith efforts, the seven states can reach the level of detail and agreement necessary to meet the original November deadline.”
Research shows the Colorado River has lost about 20% of its flow since 2000.
In recent years, states have negotiated short-term stopgap agreements to reduce water use as reservoirs dwindle, including one to be adopted in 2023.
In an effort to conserve water, farmers in California’s Imperial Valley are trading in cash payments. Cities are also using less water. Even though the population of the Southwest is increasing, water use is decreasing.
California is expected to use less Colorado River water this year than in any year since 1949, according to the state Colorado Commission. River Commissioner Hamby said this is thanks to the state’s long-term efforts and investments in prioritizing conservation.
“This provides a great example of what you can do with less, and even more with less,” he said. “It certainly shows what’s possible across the basin.”
However, tensions between the states continue to rise. The disagreement could lead to litigation, but some say the outcome is uncertain.
“Time is really running out,” Hamby said. “What we need at this moment is the will and effort to do more than any of us would like, but to avoid the worst outcomes that can result from conflict.”
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs on Wednesday slammed officials representing the four upstream states for taking an “extreme negotiating stance.” Hobbs said states, starting with Colorado, are “on the clock.”
“With a critical deadline approaching, the Trump administration needs to step in, provide leadership, and broker an agreement,” Hobbs said in the paper.
A spokeswoman for Colorado’s chief negotiator, Becky Mitchell, said the upstream states are “fully on board and ready to play a role in any agreement.”
Sarah Porter, director of the Kill Water Policy Center at Arizona State University, said states are willing to fight the issue in court.
“I think the negotiators tried really hard, but sometimes it’s impossible to reach an agreement,” Porter said.
There may still be room for a deal to be reached, she said, but if it fails, “it’s very likely that states will end up in a situation where the states will be challenged in court.”
