Trump's approval rating plummets due to economic crisis

Weeks after suffering painful electoral defeats across the country and facing an unusually close special congressional election in ruby-red Tennessee, President Trump told reporters Tuesday that a “false” national narrative is controlling an economy in trouble.

Americans are employed and spending more than ever before, he said. Foreign tariffs and investment bring in trillions of dollars. President Trump added, “The word ‘affordable’ is a Democratic fraud.”

It was a message that ignored tough public opinion polls showing a clear majority of Americans across all age and demographic groups are increasingly concerned about the state of the economy and the president’s approach.

A Fox News poll released before Thanksgiving found that 76% view the economy negatively. Polls conducted since the holidays show President Trump at the lowest point in his second term, lower than any of his predecessors at this point in their second term since President Nixon. A Gallup poll found that 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapprove, while an Economist/YouGov poll found that just 32% of Americans approve of his handling of the nation’s price crisis.

“From day one, Trump didn’t hesitate to promise lower prices,” said Bill Galston, director of the Brookings Institution’s Governance Research Program. “They not only don’t believe prices are coming down, but they also don’t believe he’s focusing on these issues and taking the bold steps they were hoping for on the economy.”

Four major voter groups — young people ages 18 to 29, Hispanics, moderates and independents — were among the groups that tilted most heavily toward Mr. Trump in last year’s election and are most likely to respond to changing circumstances. “He has a terrible attitude towards all of them,” Galston said.

“There was no realignment with a lasting shift in empathy. They were dissatisfied with President Biden’s performance, so they decided to give Mr. Trump another chance,” Galston added. “But he didn’t own them. He just rented them. And the rent is due.”

Republicans hold the line

Support for Trump began in the spring, when disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and his core supporters began to split.

According to Gallup, Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters is at 84%, the lowest in his second term so far, and among independents it is at a record low of 25%.

Still, analysts say Trump’s continued support suggests his overall job performance remains broadly popular among Republican voters, even if they disagree with some of his economic and foreign policy positions.

“Compared to other presidents, President Trump has a high bottom and a low ceiling,” said Whit Ayers, a veteran Republican pollster who has consulted Republican senators and governors for more than 30 years.

For now, independents and moderates who are dissatisfied with prices and financial conditions are spurring the president’s decline in approval ratings. Trump has enjoyed high approval ratings for his policies on immigration and crime, but fewer Americans say these issues are a top priority.

“The administration is clearly at its lowest point this term, but in the grand scheme of things, the two-term average is far from its lowest point,” Ayers said. “He continues to do well among Republicans. The decline is due to a severe decline in independents.”

Mr. Trump has repeatedly shown political agility over the past decade, bouncing back from difficult voting conditions. But analysts said the policy, coupled with increased attention to the 79-year-old president’s age and physical fitness, could force Republican lawmakers and voters to adopt the policy.

Amid the downturn of the 2008 financial crisis, with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan still raging and claiming the lives of American service members, President Bush faced a disastrous approval rating of 25%, with Republican approval ratings collapsing to an all-time low of 55%. That year, Democrats achieved their biggest electoral victory since the 1960s.

“It’s certainly possible that a confluence of circumstances could result in the president’s approval rating within his party being significantly lower than President Trump’s current Gallup numbers,” said Andrew Sinclair, assistant professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “We don’t know what the theoretical floor is, or whether Mr. Trump’s theoretical floor is higher or lower than Mr. Bush’s, but we do see a decline in intraparty support, and at least that’s a possibility here.”

Ominous signs heading into midterm elections

Historically, even when a president’s approval rating exceeds 50%, the president’s party still loses an average of 14 seats in midterm elections.

A lot can change in politics in a year. But whatever the outcome of the series of elections, Mr. Ayers said, it bodes badly for Mr. Trump’s party’s ability to maintain a majority in the House.

“Attitudes toward Republican candidates are so closely tied to Trump, and Trump has so much control over the party that there isn’t much room for differentiation,” he added. “However, the president’s confirmation is critical to the party’s performance in the midterm elections.”

The latest Gallup poll shows President Trump’s continued grip on Republican voters does not extend to his allies in Congress. According to the survey, Republican approval of Congress’s performance has fallen from 54% in September to 23% now, with just 15% of independents and 4% of Democrats expressing support.

The scrutiny of the Republican majority will only intensify this month as President Trump and Congressional Republicans race to address major health care affordability concerns, including the Affordable Care Act, which could send insurance premiums soaring early next year. Furthermore, the future path of the Republican health care bill, which could be passed with public support, is by no means clear.

President Trump appeared to be aware of the state of the polls going into the holiday week, acknowledging the reality of the problem a few days earlier, claiming on social media that he had “received the best poll results of my ‘political career.'”

“So my poll numbers just went down,” Trump said, speaking at the Saudi Investment Forum in Washington. “But thanks to smart people, they went up a lot.”