The lush soy plants reach Caleb Ragland’s thighs and are ripe for harvest, but Kentucky farmers are deeply concerned. He doesn’t know where he and others like him sell their crops as China stopped buying.
Beijing, which has traditionally snapped at least a quarter of all soybeans grown in the US, is effectively boycotting them because President Trump has imposed on Chinese goods and strengthened his hands in negotiations over a new overall trade deal.
American soybean farmers have surprised the long-term viability of their business, built in part by China’s once-unusual appetite for this year’s crops, as well as our beans.
“This is a five-alarm fire for our industry,” said Ragland, who leads American soybean Asun. Trade Group.
The president still enjoys strong support in rural America, but the situation may be enough to test farmers’ loyalty to Trump. If the deal is not reached soon, farmers hope that the government will receive the aid they have done during Trump’s first term, but they see it as just a temporary solution. Trump said Thursday that he was considering an aid package.
US and Chinese officials held four rounds of trade talks between May and September, with separate trade talks in the coming weeks. No progress in soybeans has been reported.
“We’re looking forward to seeing you get a lot of money,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soy Export Council.
Political pressure is rising
After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China responded with its own tariffs, now bringing the total to up to 34% for US soybeans. It will make soybeans cheaper in other countries.
China’s retaliatory tariffs were also hit by sorghum, corn and cotton growers. And even geoduck divers are affected. However, soybeans stand out due to the importance of crop characteristics to US agricultural exports. Soybeans are the top food exports in the United States, accounting for around 14% of all agricultural products sent overseas.
And China was by far the largest foreign buyer. Last year, the US exported almost $24.5 billion worth of soybeans, while China accounted for more than $12.5 billion. This compares to $2.45 billion by the second largest buyer, the European Union. This year, China has not purchased beans since May.
When US farmers get hurt, the Trump administration is putting pressure on them to reach deals with China. As consultations drag on, Trump appears ready to help.
“We take a portion of the tariff money — a relatively small amount, but a lot for farmers — and we’re trying to help farmers a little,” Trump said during what he called the transition period.
The only way most farmers survived Trump’s trade war in his first term was tens of millions of dollars to pay the government. But that’s not what most farmers want.
What farmers expect from Trump
“American farmers, especially myself, don’t want to pay for assistance,” said Brian Worpop, 52, a fourth-generation farmer from Warren, Indiana.
Farmers are looking for Trump in search of a long-term solution.
“The farmers were overwhelmingly on the corner of President Trump,” said Ragland, president of the Soybean Association. “And I think the message that our soybean farmers want to provide as a whole is, “President Trump, we had your back. We need you to have ours now.” ”
He said that while farmers appreciate their willingness to provide short-term relief, what they ultimately need is a strong and reliable market. “Our priorities aim to ensure that the US has lasting trade agreements so that farmers can sell their crops and build a sustainable future with their long-term clients.
Ragland, 39, hopes that his three sons will become the 10th generation to 4,500 acres in Magnolia, Kentucky. Unless something changes immediately, he is worried that thousands of farmers will not survive.
This year, many farmers wanted to break even if the prices of crops were weak, even if only increased costs. Trump’s tariffs, which helped make crops less competitive around the world, have lowered prices even further. Steel and fertilizer tariffs sent more costs.
Minnesota soybean grower president Darrin Johnson said he still has faith in the Trump administration to reach a good trade deal with China.
“I think it’s time for patience to wear thinly,” said Johnson, a fourth-generation farmer. “I don’t think anyone thought we’d take this long because 90 transactions were said to be 90 days.”
China’s negotiation strategy
The US soy industry grew in response to China’s demand that began in the 1990s, when China began to rapidly rise in the economy and relied on foreign producers to feed its people. Protein-rich soybeans are an important part of your diet.
China relies on household crops of steamed beans and tofu, but it requires much more soybeans for petroleum extraction and animal feed. In 2024, China produced 20 million tons of soybeans, importing more than 105 million tons of tons.
American farmers rely on China as their biggest client, which “gives China a point of leverage,” Sutter said. By refraining from purchasing our soybeans, China is expected to try to leverage its purchasing power in trade talks.
“I think that’s the strategy,” said Sutter of the US Soy Export Council. “I think that’s why China is targeting soybeans and other agricultural products because they have strong lobbies and know that farmers are important to the US government.”
Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, did not answer any specific questions about the purchase of soybeans, but urged the US to work with Beijing.
“The essence of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US is mutual benefit and victory,” Li said.
When Trump launched its first trade war in 2018, China turned its eyes to Brazil. Last year, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of Chinese imports, with the US share falling to 21%. Argentina and other South American countries are also selling further to China, diversifying to boost food security.
What do American farmers do accordingly?
He also said that US farmers are expanding their customer base and have recently traveled to Japan and Indonesia in search of new markets. Taiwan has pledged to buy $10 billion worth of soybeans, corn, wheat and beef over the next four years.
“There is a strong diversification effort underway,” Sutter said. However, “China is so big, it’s difficult to replace it overnight.”
Farmers also work at home to promote consumption. The growth in biodiesel production depends on some of the soybeans that were once exported. They crush other beans to produce a soybean oil and soybean meal. The United Soybean Committee is investing in research into the benefits of using soybeans to feed dairy cows and pigs.
However, Iowa Farmer Rob Ewalt, director of the Soybean Committee, knows that such domestic use is slowly growing.
“We can’t replace China in one go,” Ewalt said. “It won’t happen. We need to be realistic on that.”
Tang and Funk write for the Associated Press. Tan was reported from Washington to Omaha to Funk. Magnolia’s AP journalist Dylan Rovan contributed to this report by obedifying Warren’s Rammy and Minneapolis’ Steve Karnowski.
