In one of the most comprehensive photos of the growing health risks associated with wildfire smoke, a new study suggests that over 41,000 deaths each year between 2011 and 2020.
By 2050, as global warming makes North American massive swaths hotter and dry, the annual smoke death toll could reach between 68,000 and 71,000, with preventive and public health measures becoming stronger.
“The numbers were so big that they definitely surprised us,” said Min Huachiu, a lead author and assistant professor at Stony Brook University. “We’ve seen that wildfire smoke already kills many people.”
During the worst wildfire season in California’s modern history, wildfires burned more than 4.2 million acres statewide.
Many Californians trapped during the Covid-19 pandemic have come across an air of choking as they stepped outside. Bay Area residents remember the sick orange skies that they woke up five years ago this month. The Jetstream carried the pollution thousands of miles east to the Atlantic coast.
To the extent investigated, millions of people were exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution. When inhaled, this microscopic contamination not only worsens people’s lungs, but also enters the bloodstream, causing inflammation that can cause heart attacks and strokes.
For years, researchers have struggled to quantify the dangers pose by smoke. A paper published in Nature reports that it is much larger than public health officials know.
However, most climate assessments say that “wildfire smoke is often not included as part of the climate-related damage, and by our calculations, this is one of the most important climate impacts in the United States.”
In particular, California is projected to see the biggest increase in smoke-related mortality rates, with over 5,000 deaths per year. The state’s vast forests and arid climate have made it the country’s most fire-prone nation. With 39 million residents, many Californians are downwind.
The study also estimated more deaths than previous studies, as it predicted death rates up to three years after a person was exposed to wildfires.
It also shows the danger of smoke from areas where fire is prone to fire and wet areas in the country. This is a recent phenomenon that has attracted more attention in the last few years with large Canadian wildfires that have contributed to hazy skies on the Midwest and East Coast.
“Everyone is affected all over the US,” Key said. “It’s true that the influence of the US West is more affected, but the US East is never isolated from this issue.”
Elected officials and climate experts are calling for reduced carbon emissions from fossil burning to prevent worsening impacts from climate change. However, as the concentration of greenhouse gases continues to rise every year and emissions continue to increase, some degree of global warming is inevitable as it has not fallen. For example, much of the carbon dioxide from today’s diesel tail pipes remains in the atmosphere for over a century.
“We’ll see a significant level of temperature rise even if we reduce CO2 tomorrow due to the inertia of the Earth (climate),” Qiu said.
But that’s not to say that you can’t do anything. Qiu said it emphasizes the importance of adapting to warm planets while working to reduce planetary warming emissions.
Research has shown that air purifiers can significantly improve indoor air quality during wildfires. And states with high fire risk, such as California, should continue to fund prescribed burns, deliberately set up by forest experts, remove flammable vegetation and avoid larger wildfires.
“The tricky thing is that the prescribed fire also produces smoke,” Qiu said. “So that would be a trade-off. We’ll have some smoke, but we hope that it can reduce the smoke burden much more due to the (actual) wildfire.”
